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With the Thanksgiving vacation within the rearview mirror, Congress is as soon as once more dealing with a time crunch to perform numerous main legislative priorities earlier than the tip of the yr.
After punting the choices earlier within the yr, lawmakers have to each fund the federal government previous the present December 3 deadline and increase the debt ceiling earlier than the US defaults on its debt.
Senate Democrats additionally hope to advance President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion reconciliation invoice, the Construct Again Higher Act, after it handed the Home in mid-November, and the chamber additionally must make headway on the Nationwide Protection Authorization Act (NDAA), an annual must-pass protection coverage invoice.
The NDAA, which is traditionally bipartisan, could also be comparatively clean crusing — albeit time-consuming — after Senate Majority Chief Chuck Schumer agreed this month to decouple it from the US Innovation and Competitors Act (USICA), however Construct Again Higher faces an unsure destiny by the hands of average Senate Democrats.
In its present kind, the invoice contains decrease prescription drug costs, common pre-kindergarten, an expanded youngster tax credit score, and 4 weeks of paid household depart, however may nonetheless change considerably previous to any remaining passage.
Quick-term extensions for presidency funding and the debt ceiling, in the meantime, acquired bipartisan help this fall, nevertheless it’s nonetheless unclear whether or not lawmakers can coalesce behind an omnibus spending invoice earlier than the December 3 deadline, and Republicans have already signaled they could not help one other enhance to the debt ceiling, regardless of the doubtless extreme penalties of a US default.
“Now it’s our flip and we’ve bought to buckle down,” Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin advised NPR this month. “And now we have a number of issues which might be important: army authorization, debt ceiling, persevering with decision. It’s going to be a busy December, however we’ve bought to get the job executed.”
Right here’s every part Congress should get executed earlier than December 25, why it’s so vital — and why a lot of it’s nonetheless in limbo.
Congress should fund the federal government to keep away from a shutdown
On the high of Congress’s to-do listing is to verify, a technique or one other, that the lights keep on previous December 3. Congress handed a seamless decision on September 30 to fund the federal government by means of that date and keep away from a shutdown, nevertheless it’s set to run out on Friday, and it’s trying more and more unlikely that lawmakers will efficiently advance an omnibus spending invoice earlier than then.
A possible various, in accordance with CQ Roll Name, is one other CR, which may fund the federal government by means of February or March and provides Congress extra time to finalize its 2022 appropriations invoice.
Lawmakers may additionally go for a stopgap measure funding the federal government till simply December 17, in hopes that the tight schedule will pressure Congress to come back to an settlement concerning the full appropriations invoice, or a minimum of give them a while to make progress on it earlier than passing one other stopgap measure to fund the federal government into subsequent yr.
An entire omnibus invoice features a dozen smaller spending measures to fund numerous facets of the federal authorities; presently, 10 of these part payments have handed the Home, whereas the Senate has introduced simply three payments to committee and handed none.
No matter path they take, Congress should get straight to work when members return from the Thanksgiving break; beginning Monday, they solely have 5 days to avert a shutdown.
Can Congress pay its money owed?
Subsequent on the docket, and no much less vital, is elevating the debt ceiling. In keeping with a November 16 letter from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to congressional leaders, the federal government may attain the debt ceiling by December 15, at which level, she wrote, “there are eventualities through which Treasury could be left with inadequate remaining sources to proceed to finance the operations of the U.S. authorities past this date.”
In October, Congress voted to extend the debt restrict by $480 billion, which gave the Treasury sufficient funds to maintain the federal government solvent — for some time.
However now, with the December 15 deadline quick approaching, it’s unclear whether or not Republicans will play ball with Democrats to keep away from probably catastrophic penalties.
In a Wall Avenue Journal op-ed in September, Yellen warned of a dire scenario ought to Congress fail to behave and enhance the debt restrict.
“In a matter of days, tens of millions of Individuals might be strapped for money,” she wrote. “We may see indefinite delays in important funds. Almost 50 million seniors may cease receiving Social Safety checks for a time. Troops may go unpaid. Hundreds of thousands of households who depend on the month-to-month youngster tax credit score may see delays. America, in brief, would default on its obligations.”
The US has by no means defaulted on its debt, though it has come shut, and economists say that to take action would have catastrophic penalties, together with probably reversing the progress of restoration from the pandemic, slashing tens of millions of jobs, growing borrowing prices for abnormal Individuals, and throwing the worldwide financial system into turmoil.
Regardless of that, Republicans hope to pressure Democrats to boost the debt ceiling with out their cooperation — “with the intention to merely make some extent,” as Vox’s Li Zhou wrote again in October.
Democrats, alternatively, have argued that Republicans should work with them to cross a suspension or enhance, or just get out of the way in which. One, as a result of avoiding a big financial collapse is in everybody’s curiosity, and the minority get together hasn’t sometimes blocked motion to this diploma prior to now. And two, as a result of each Democrats and Republicans are liable for the precise debt that this laws would tackle.
In keeping with the Hill, it’s attainable Schumer and Senate Minority Chief Mitch McConnell will as soon as once more attain a deal to boost or droop the debt ceiling, regardless of opposition from members of McConnell’s convention.
That’s not a certain factor, nevertheless, and it’s not clear how Democrats intend to navigate the debt ceiling subject. One choice, floated by Pelosi and beforehand backed by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), could be to make use of the reconciliation course of. Reconciliation would enable Democrats to elevate the debt ceiling with none Republican votes; nevertheless, Democrats would additionally need to put ahead a particular determine to which they plan to boost the ceiling, which is a probably unpopular resolution earlier than the midterm elections, and one which might require the enter of Senate parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, in accordance with CQ Roll Name.
“We can’t let the complete religion and credit score of the USA lapse, and we’re specializing in getting this executed in a bipartisan approach,” Schumer advised reporters final Sunday.
Biden’s agenda hangs within the stability
Additionally on the agenda is the Construct Again Higher Act, which is as soon as once more within the fingers of the Senate after passing the Home on November 19. Though the flagship local weather and social spending invoice is much less time-sensitive than the earlier two priorities Congress is confronted with, Democratic senators have stated they hope to cross the invoice earlier than happening break for the vacation recess.
Although it included $3.5 trillion in spending when it was launched earlier this yr, the invoice has been pared right down to about $1.75 trillion by moderates in each chambers — and particularly by Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), who retain outsized affect over the invoice because the price range reconciliation course of requires all 50 Democratic votes (and Vice President Kamala Harris to interrupt the tie) to cross an evenly divided Senate. No Senate Republicans are anticipated to vote in favor of the invoice.
Regardless of being scaled again, the model of the invoice that handed the Home contains numerous flagship objects from the Biden agenda, corresponding to provisions for common pre-kindergarten, an extension of the kid tax credit score, $555 billion in local weather spending, and a brand new company minimal tax charge.
Extra controversial amongst Democrats, the measure additionally features a non permanent enhance to the quantity of state and native taxes Individuals can deduct from their federal tax filings (known as the SALT deduction), although it’s not sure that may survive the Senate.
Whereas it’s not important that the invoice cross earlier than the vacation recess, it’s nonetheless a high precedence for Democrats, for numerous causes — each with the intention to cement Biden’s home coverage legacy and, probably, to assist increase his sagging ballot numbers as inflation raises costs on every part from groceries to gasoline.
Nonetheless, the invoice isn’t more likely to make it by means of the Senate with out some adjustments.
Amongst these attainable adjustments: Whereas the Home model contains $200 billion for paid household depart and a provision for Medicaid to cowl listening to prices, Manchin has stood firmly in opposition to each proposals. The Senate parliamentarian additionally has remaining say on numerous parts within the invoice that will not conform with the principles of reconciliation, together with immigration coverage, and any adjustments should return to the Home for remaining approval after passing the Senate.
The NDAA is coming right down to the wire
The NDAA, an annual protection coverage invoice, has handed Congress yearly for the previous six many years, together with over a veto from former President Donald Trump, which Congress overrode by a large margin.
This yr, the invoice is dealing with a comparatively easy path — there are not any veto threats on the horizon, for one — however Congress nonetheless must get again on observe after a snag relating to Schumer’s try to hyperlink the NDAA with a invoice to counter China’s technological and protection positive aspects.
That invoice — the US Innovation and Competitors Act, or USICA — handed the Home earlier this yr and would offer $250 billion in funding for analysis and growth, in addition to “to spice up the U.S. semiconductor trade,” in accordance with Politico.
Its inclusion with the NDAA proved controversial, nevertheless, and the 2 measures had been unlinked earlier this month forward of a profitable procedural vote within the Senate to advance the NDAA course of.
That vote ended a number of months of stalling after the Senate Armed Companies Committee authorised a model of the invoice greater than three months in the past, and after the Home handed its model in September.
However whereas the ball is now rolling on the NDAA, main coverage debates stay earlier than it reaches Biden’s desk: A lot of proposed inclusions may have a huge impact on US protection coverage going ahead.
Amongst these adjustments is a model of the Army Justice Enchancment and Growing Prevention Act backed by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), which might take prosecution of army intercourse crimes out of the chain of command, and a provision that would come with ladies within the draft for the primary time.
All advised, there are additionally greater than 1,000 amendments filed, together with one to repeal the 1991 Gulf Battle and 2002 Iraq Battle authorizations.
Though that measure has pretty broad help, McConnell warned that repealing the 2002 authorization would give the US much less latitude to behave within the Center East.
“I anticipate a sturdy debate about that,” McConnell advised Politico earlier this month.
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