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The experiment: It’s exhausting to check transmission in a lab, so that is an experiment that occurs in the actual world. Researchers will use sequencing exams to trace what fraction of the particular covid-19 instances they see are because of omicron. If that share begins rising, and if related development is seen in several international locations, it is going to be an indication that omicron is transmitted quicker.
That’s what occurred with the alpha variant, which appeared within the United Kingdom in 2020. By December of that 12 months, it accounted for a rising share of British instances, and inside a number of months it additionally got here to dominate case masses in the remainder of Europe and within the US. Later, alpha was displaced by delta. With each of those strains, alpha and delta, it took about 4 months from the time they had been launched for them to account for many instances. If omicron follows swimsuit, it is going to be the dominant pressure by March or April of 2021.
“After we see alternative, it’s strongly suggestive of a transmission benefit,” says Thiel. “But when it solely occurs in a single place, it might be because of probability.” He says the rise of omicron in South Africa, by itself, doesn’t show whether or not the variant is extra transmissible.
How quickly: Agency proof for greater transmissibility might take a month or extra to amass. That’s as a result of it takes about 5 to 6 days for a newly contaminated particular person to develop sufficient virus to contaminate others. And to get a grasp on whether or not omicron is being transmitted quicker, researchers might want to observe a number of rounds of an infection and unfold.
Such analysis will be accelerated if researchers prolong the timeline backward by sequencing previous samples. Already, medical doctors in Nigeria have stated they’ve discovered omicron in a banked covid-19 pattern in that nation. Dutch authorities additionally discovered omicron instances there from mid-November. These might supply earlier knowledge factors.
What’s subsequent: It’s not solely the SARS-CoV-2 virus that’s altering; so has the human stage the place the pandemic is enjoying out. Omicron will face extra various situations than any variant but, together with international locations the place practically everyone seems to be vaccinated, international locations utilizing completely different vaccines, locales the place most individuals have had covid-19 already, and “zero-covid” nations like China and New Zealand. Which means omicron may take maintain in some areas however fizzle out in others.
Does omicron trigger extra extreme illness?
The fear: Initially, some South African medical doctors stated the signs brought on by the brand new variant appeared milder, however then got here reviews of extra hospital beds filling up. Proper now, nobody is aware of whether or not omicron causes worse signs or not.
The problem is that omicron is so new that almost all instances are solely every week or two previous, whereas it usually takes a number of weeks for covid-19 to trigger extreme issues or demise. “It’s too early to say one thing about illness severity. Up to now, we will’t actually say something,” says Christian Althaus, an epidemiologist in Bern.
The experiment: To measure illness severity, researchers can expose lab animals like mice or monkeys to omicron, however the ultimate solutions will come from real-world knowledge on folks, together with physician’s observations, hospital information, and demise counts.
How quickly: Whether or not omicron causes worse illness, or completely different signs, might be the query that may take longest to reply—probably a few months.
With all of the uncertainty round omicron, and the chance that vaccines received’t work so properly, researchers are reminding the general public about techniques they are saying will stunt the unfold of any variant, like isolation, social distancing, and sporting masks. “There isn’t a variant towards which these interventions received’t work,” says Thiel.
He additionally says omicron is an indication of issues to return. “Within the subsequent months or years, it is going to be tough. There might be new variants; we should always anticipate that,” he says. “However inventory markets mustn’t reply to all variants in a scared approach. That’s the future, and we must address that.”
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